THE EVOLUTION OF STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY OVER TIME: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract This paper provides a systematic review of the weak‐form market efficiency literature that examines return predictability from past price changes, with an exclusive focus on the stock markets. Our survey shows that the bulk of the empirical studies examine whether the stock market under study is or is not weak‐form efficient in the absolute sense, assuming that the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. However, the possibility of time‐varying weak‐form market efficiency has received increasing attention in recent years. We categorize these emerging studies based on the research framework adopted, namely non‐overlapping sub‐period analysis, time‐varying parameter model and rolling estimation window. An encouraging development is that the documented empirical evidence of evolving stock return predictability can be rationalized within the framework of the adaptive markets hypothesis.     

Regulatory pressure and income smoothing by banks in response to anticipated changes to the Basel Ⅱ Accordq

We examine the effects of the revised Basel II rules on bank managers’ discretionary behavior, specifically income smoothing and loan loss provisioning. As the ...     

How should firms carry out technological diversification to improve their performance? An analysis of patenting of Korean firms

This research aims to analyze how a firm's technological diversification strategies influence its financial performances, in terms of ‘technological diversification’ in broad technology sectors and ‘technological concentration’ on its own core technology, especially in the case of Korean large firms. The data used in the analysis were panel data encompassing the years between 1990 and 2006, which linked Korean firms’ patent information registered in the United States Patent and Trademark Office to the financial data of those firms collected from Korea Investors Service, Inc. (Kis-Value). For the estimation of the panel data, a fixed effect model, which considers the individual firms’ own effect on the financial performance, was used. Tobin's q was used as a dependent variable representing firm performance, while ‘broad technology diversity’ and ‘core technology diversity’ were used as the focal explanatory variables. The results show that a firm seeking to have more technological assets should invest in a broad technological diversification strategy in its search for new business opportunities; it should likewise concentrate on the core technology in order to maintain its financial performance.     

The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates

This article presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First, apart from the two labour market states – employment and unemployment – we consider a third state – out of the labour force. Second, we study net rather than gross flows, where net refers to the balance of flows between any two labour market states. Distinguishing a third state is important because the labour market flows to and from that state are quantitatively important. Focusing on net flows simplifies the complexity of interactions between the flows and allows us to perform a dynamic analysis in a structural vector-autoregression framework. We find that a shock to the net flow from unemployment to employment drives the unemployment rate and the participation rate in opposite directions while a shock to the net flow from not in the labour force to unemployment drives the rates in the same direction.     

An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.     

Volatile Environments and Interfirm Governance: Does Trust Matter?

Purpose: Manufacturers in volatile environments should rely on governance mechanisms to reduce the risks inherent in those environments. However, it remains to be determined which governance mechanism a given manufacturer will develop in volatile environments in order to manage the relationship with its supplier. The principal objective of this study is to explain circumstances in which different governance mechanisms function under volatile environmental conditions.

Methodology: The empirical test was conducted with manufacturing companies in the context of manufacturer-supplier relationships. Construct measures were based on existing measures and previous research. Measurement reliability and validity were established using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and an overall measurement model was assessed with structural equation modeling using LISREL 8.54.

Findings: The results of this study showed that manufacturers should consider the level of trust they bestow on their suppliers to select an appropriate governance mechanism to deal with environmental volatility. When a manufacturer does not trust its supplier under conditions of environmental volatility, the manufacturer should consider adopting unilateral governance. If a manufacturer trusts its supplier, it should consider bilateral governance to respond in a timely manner to changes in the resource market.

Contribution: This study introduced trust to explain governance mechanisms in an uncertain environment and showed that interorganizational trust is a condition for influencing a manufacturer's propensity toward a specific governance mechanism.     

Factors affecting investment intentions: A consumer behaviour perspective

The purpose of this study is to examine investors’ decision-making from the perspective of a consumer using constructs commonly found in the consumer behaviour field. An investment intentions model incorporating product knowledge, product involvement, risk and uncertainty avoidance, and mediated by perceived risk and uncertainty, was developed and analysed using structural equation modelling. The research found that product knowledge and product involvement had the greatest impact on intentions, suggesting the applicability of these constructs in finance research. Perceived risk was the only mediating construct. The model explained more than 60 per cent of the variation in intentions. A major contribution of this research came from the development of an investment intentions model to examine retail investors’ investment decision-making processes from a consumer behaviour perspective. It helps practitioners to develop a better understanding of the factors that impact on their clients’ intentions to invest in the stock market. This study is the first to include a set of consumer behaviour constructs in an investment intentions model that was not examined before, despite the close relationship between behavioural finance and consumer behaviour that includes elements of psychology and sociology in individual decision-making.     

Influence of Language of Packaging Labels on Consumers’ Buying Preferences

Can packaging labels of three different foreign languages (Korean, Japanese, and English) affect consumers’ preferences? In a month of field experiment involving 203 Chinese undergraduate students, this study used coffee as an experimental product and created a fictitious brand “7 AM COFFEE.” Using analysis of variance (ANOVA) as a statistical tool, the results of the experiment show that the English language represents the strongest effect for (1) consumers’ attention, (2) trust, (3) perceived quality, (4) taste perception, and (5) purchase intention. Moreover, consumers with high or low frequencies of drinking a coffee do not have a specific preference in relations to their attitude. The findings and discussion of this research provide better direction for marketing managers of beverages in establishing market strategies to promote products and generating appeal among coffee drinker.     

Investigating the purchase intention toward healthy drinks among Urban consumers in Malaysia

This study aims to investigate whether attitude (ATT), subjective norm (SN), perceived behavioral control (PBC), brand, awareness (AWS), and trust and would influence the purchase intentions toward healthy drinks among urban consumers in Malaysia. Furthermore, the authors examine the influence of AWS and trust on consumers’ ATT toward healthy drinks. This study adopted the extended model of Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) of Ajzen, which included brand, AWS, and trust with ATTs, SN, and PBC to investigate consumers’ purchase intention toward healthy drinks. A total of 323 usable surveys were received from consumers in Penang and Kuala Lumpur. Data obtained from the survey were then analyzed using SPSS and Smart PLS. The results indicated that ATT, SN and PBC in the standard TPB model were supported. Trust as the additional determinant also proved to influence consumers’ purchase intention toward healthy drinks. Trust and AWS also have a positive and significant relationship with consumers’ ATT toward healthy drinks. Surprisingly, brand and AWS were found insignificant in influencing consumers’ purchase intention toward healthy drinks.     

Factors influencing clothing interest and purchase intention: a study of Generation Y consumers in Malaysia*

The purpose of this study is to examine the factors influencing clothing interest among Generation Y consumers in Malaysia. Brand image, word of mouth (WOM), self-concept, perceived quality, and need for uniqueness were hypothesized to be related with clothing interest, which in turn, was deemed to be related with purchase intention. The interaction effect of price consciousness on the relationship between clothing interest and purchase intention was also examined in this study. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data from a total of 300 respondents from Malaysia to test the hypothesized relationships. Results showed that need for uniqueness, self-concept, brand image, WOM, and perceived quality are significant predictors of clothing interest among the Generation Y consumers in Malaysia and price consciousness moderated the relationship between their clothing interests and purchase intention. The practical implications of the research findings were discussed.